India Exim Bank forecasts India’s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 131.2 bn and Non-oil exports to US$ 113.8 bn for Q2 of FY2027 

New Delhi, August 12, 2026: Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports at US$ 131.2 bn, witnessing a healthy year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 17.6%, while non-oil exports are forecasted at US$ 113.8 bn, growing by 20.3%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2027. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected at US$ 105.8 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 20.5% during the same quarter.

Despite global uncertainties, the growth in exports could be as a result of increasing geographical diversification along with favourable prospects arising from recent trade agreements with major trading partners, supported by buoyant demand in partner countries. India’s positive export outlook is expected to be driven by sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and exchange rate movements. However, there are downside risks emanating from geopolitical conflicts, and volatility in international commodity markets.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the third quarter of FY 2027 (i.e., October-December 2026) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2026.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

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