Market Commentary and Macro Trends

MUMBAI, 9 OCTOBER: Precious Metals: Precious metals traded on a mixed note across global and domestic markets, with gold holding firm while silver faced tactical profit-booking. COMEX Gold (Dec-26) rose 0.40% to $4,157/oz, lifting MCX Gold by 0.30% to Rs1,49,610/10g, supported by safe-haven demand. In contrast, COMEX Silver declined 1.40% to $59.42/oz, dragging MCX Silver down 1.00% to Rs2,23,471/kg amid broader cyclical weakness and profit-taking.

Gold staged a notable rebound from a two-month low as traders weighed the evolving energy-price outlook following US President Donald Trump’s assurance that Washington would refrain from attacking Iran ahead of the US midterm elections. The remarks helped temper near-term geopolitical jitters, triggering renewed buying interest in the yellow metal.

Adding a strong pillar of support, persistent central-bank accumulation continued to underpin bullion sentiment, with the People’s Bank of China adding approximately 23 tonnes to its gold reserves in Sep-26. With geopolitical uncertainty, shifting energy dynamics and robust official-sector demand shaping market sentiment, gold remains firmly in focus as investors navigate an increasingly complex macroeconomic landscape.

Base Metals: Base metals closed sharply lower on Thursday after surging toward weekly highs, as aggressive profit booking emerged during the second half of the session. LME copper three-month forwards approached $14,650/tonne before retreating below $14,300, while aluminium extended its weakness, breaking below its Jun-26 lows of $3,040. Zinc also witnessed significant selling pressure. A firm US dollar and broader risk-off sentiment across global equity markets weighed on prices.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as Strait of Hormuz vessel transits fell to their lowest since 2-Jul-26 following increased tanker attacks, pushing crude oil toward $105/bbl. In India, MCX zinc backwardation held above Rs13/kg, while copper remained around Rs8/kg. MCX Zinc’s import parity premium exceeded Rs300/tonne over LME cash, indicating expensive domestic prices, whereas MCX copper traded over Rs170/tonne cheaper.

Despite a positive start to Friday’s LME session, base metals are likely to remain volatile and broadly rangebound amid end-of-week positioning, with geopolitical developments and dollar movements dictating near-term direction.

Research reports | Commodity Market Report by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing)

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