Tame US CPI eases rate-hike fears, lifts risk appetite
MUMBAI, 13 AUGUST: US headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY in July, matching consensus, cooling from June’s 3.5%. Core CPI held at 2.5% YoY, also in line with forecasts. The soft print led markets to pare back bets on an aggressive Fed move at the September meeting, with gold rallying above $4,400 — a two-month high — on rising odds that the Fed holds rates steady. The dollar firmed into the release.
The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 0.54% and 0.26%, respectively, recovering from earlier losses on strong results from AI infrastructure and cloud names.
Super Micro Computer surged over 19%, while Dell, Teradyne, Seagate, and Arista Networks each gained more than 6%, extending the AI-hardware rally. Bloom Energy rose 13% after Nebius picked its fuel cells for a 300 MW AI data center, with Q2 revenue up 165% YoY to $1.07 billion.
India’s CPI rose 4.45% YoY in July (vs. 4.38% in June), close to the 4.4% estimate. The FY27E inflation forecast is retained at 4.9% YoY, with a pickup to 5.0–5.8% expected in H2FY27E on adverse base effects, El Niño risk, and supply-chain pressures. With inflation contained, the RBI is expected to stay on hold through CY26E, with a possible 25 bps hike in Q1CY27E — the Fed’s path remains the key swing factor.
Brent Crude oil settled near $88/bbl as markets stayed sceptical of a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with US-Iran tensions keeping risk premiums elevated.
The rupee snapped a two-day losing streak yesterday, appreciating 10 paise to close at 95.33 as cooling crude prices offered relief after the recent rally. Likely central bank interventions and dollar inflows into debt and primary markets also supported the currency.
Nifty managed to reclaim intraday losses and close above these key moving averages, which is an encouraging sign for the bulls. Even after falling over 500 points from its recent peak of 24,774, Nifty remains above its key near-term averages, keeping the broader undertone bullish.
A low of 24,265 now will act as immediate support, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are the key resistance zones to watch.
Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on yesterday’s CAS adjustments and mixed global cues. – Morning Commentary from Mr. Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities
(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing.)
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