Views on Commodities, Currencies and Bonds
અમદાવાદ, 5 એપ્રિલઃ કોમોડિટી, બુલિયન અને કરન્સી માર્કેટમાં ચાલી રહેલાં ટ્રેન્ડનું એનાલિસિસ એટ એ ગ્લાન્સ
ENERGY
International and domestic crude oil futures ended marginally in the green on Tuesday as OPEC’s output cuts offset losses from possibly weak demand from China amid weak economic data from the country. Meanwhile, after market hours data from private forecaster API showed crude stocks fell by about 4.3 million barrels in the week ended March 31. On the product side, gasoline inventories fell by about 4 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 3.7 million barrels. U.S. NYMEX Gas futures ended marginally higher on Tuesday as rising LNG feed gas offsets milder weather. Freeport LNG’s export plant was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas on Tuesday, marginally down from 2.3 bcfd on Monday.
BULLION
International and domestic gold futures surged higher on Tuesday’s trade as the dollar and yields fell due to weaker U.S. economic data bolstered bets for slower rate hikes from the U.S. Fed. U.S. job openings in February dropped to a near two-year low, while factory orders also dipped. At the same time, the recent banking crises have led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Markets now see about a 43% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter basis point in May, with a roughly 57% chance of a pause.
BASE METALS
COMEX Copper future slumped on Tuesday as weak U.S. economic data raised concerns about the outlook for global growth and metals demand. Copper also tracked weak equity markets supported by evidence of a cooling labour market and low orders for U.S.-manufactured goods. Most other base metals were also weaker on Tuesday.
CURRENCY
BONDS
The Indian Rupee weakened against the Dollar on Monday’s trade as a spike in crude oil prices could raise fears of rising deficits in the country. Asian currencies led by the Chinese Yuan and South Korean won too weakened this Monday and weighed on sentiments. The Rupee settled at 82.3325 per dollar, as compared to its previous close of 82.1650. The cut could also push oil higher, clouding outlook for inflation and in turn leading to speculation that the U.S. Fed may have to continue its aggressive policy path and could push the Dollar higher and keep the Rupee weaker. India’s financial markets were shut on Tuesday for a public holiday. In the overseas markets, the U.S. Dollar Index slumped over half a percent on Tuesday as another round of weak economic data reinforced investor bets that the Federal Reserve is nearly done with its tightening cycle. The Sterling rose to a new 10-month high, while the Euro reached its highest since February against the Dollar on Tuesday’s trade. The Yen also gained against the Dollar on safe haven bid for the Japanese currency.
Indian bond yields ended flat on Monday, with focus shifting to RBI’s MPC meet this week. The 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield ended at 7.315% after closing at 7.315% on Friday. U.S. bond yields ended weaker on Monday and tumbled on Tuesday after data suggests economy is cooling and Fed may not need another rate hike this year. U.S. job openings dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years in February, suggesting to some the labour market is finally cooling. CME’s FedWatch Tool showed that markets were pricing in the likelihood that the Fed raises its target rate by 25 basis points on May 3 at 43.7%, down from 59.7% late on Monday. Chances of a rate cut later this year also rose.
(Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities)
(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing.)
(સ્પષ્ટતા: અત્રેથી આપવામાં આવતી તમામ પ્રકારની માહિતી કોઇપણ પ્રકારે રોકાણ, ટ્રેડીંગ માટેની સલાહ નથી. બજારોમાં રોકાણ જોખમોને આધીન છે અને રોકાણ કરતા પહેલા કૃપા કરીને તમારા સલાહકારની સલાહ લો.)
