Commodities, Currencies and Bonds: TECHNICAL VIEW AT A GLANCE
Ahmedabad, 9 May
ENERGY
International and domestic crude oil prices rose on Monday rebounding from a one-and-a-half-year low supported by expectations of supply cuts by OPEC+ and as concerns eased over an economic downturn in the US economy. • Stronger-than-expected US jobs data and wage growth pointed out that the US economy is doing well despite high inflation and rising interest rates. • Meanwhile, oil prices also took support after Wildfires in Alberta in Canada caused some producers to shut some oil output and pipeline flows. • U.S. natural gas futures gained on Monday on small declines in U.S. daily output and a drop-in gas exports. • Prices climbed despite forecasts for milder weather and less U.S. demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
BULLION
International and domestic gold and silver prices edged higher on Monday, regaining some ground after a retreat in the previous session and ahead of inflation data this week that could provide clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates. • According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations for the 1-year in the U.S. fell to 4.4% in April 2023 from the previous month’s 4.7%.
BASE METALS
COMEX, MCX and ShFE copper prices rose on Monday as low inventory levels provided a cushion after prices fell for three straight weeks due to weaker-than-expected demand in China. • Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses fell to their lowest levels since January 13 to 134,919 tonnes on Friday, equivalent to over 3 days of China’s annual demand last year, data showed.
CURRENCIES
The Indian Rupee traded in a small range on Monday as a possible intervention from RBI offset gains from a broadly weaker greenback and exporters hedging their dollar receivables. • The Rupee settled 81.7950 per U.S. dollar compared with 81.8000 in the previous session. • The focus now shifts to domestic inflation data due this week, which will provide cues on the RBI’s next rate hike moves. • However, lack of any major trigger kept the Rupee in a small 13-paisa band on Monday. • In the overseas markets, the U.S. Dollar Index ended with small gains as market looks to inflation data. • According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations for the 1-year in the U.S. fell to 4.4% in April 2023 from the previous month’s 4.7%. • The Euro and the Japanese Yen closed weaker on Monday, tracking a recovery in the greenback.
BONDS
Indian government bond yields started the week higher, as they rose for 2nd straight session on Monday, tracking similar movement in U.S. peers last week. • The 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2033 bond yield ended at 7.049%, after closing at 7.014% on Thursday. • In the overseas markets, the US 10-year Treasury yields rose on Monday on optimism that the worst stresses in the U.S. regional banking system may be over.
(Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities)
(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing.)
(સ્પષ્ટતા: અત્રેથી આપવામાં આવતી તમામ પ્રકારની માહિતી કોઇપણ પ્રકારે રોકાણ, ટ્રેડીંગ માટેની સલાહ નથી. બજારોમાં રોકાણ જોખમોને આધીન છે અને રોકાણ કરતા પહેલા કૃપા કરીને તમારા સલાહકારની સલાહ લો.)
