Views on Commodities, Currencies and Bonds at a Glance
Ahmedabad, 10 April:
ENERGY
International and domestic crude oil futures ended flat on Thursday but posted a third weekly gain supported by further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling U.S. oil inventories. Upside was limited on fears about the global economic outlook. Data from Baker Hughes showed U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 590 last week and lent support. CFTC data showed speculators raised their net long in crude F&O by 60,399 contracts to 165,458 in the week to April 4. U.S. NYMEX and domestic gas futures tumbled on Thursday on rising output and forecast for milder weather and less heating demand. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March and compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January 2023. Additionally, the U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 23 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended March 23 was slightly higher than the 21-bcf withdrawal forecast in a poll. CFTC data showed speculators raised their net shorts in crude F&O by 5,608 contracts to 10,848 in the week to April 4.
BULLION
International and domestic gold ended weaker, while silver ended marginally in then green on Thursday. Meanwhile, data showed on Friday the US economy created 236,000 jobs in March, the least since December of 2020, and compared to forecasts of 239,000. The unemployment rate in the United States edged down to 3.5% in March 2023, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%.
BASE METALS
COMEX and MCX Copper gained marginally on Thursday supported by optimism over recovering demand in China. But then again persistent concern about a potential recession after recent U.S. data curbed the gains.
CURRENCY
The Indian Rupee appreciated against the Dollar on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets by holding rates. The Rupee settled at 81.8850 per dollar, compared with its previous close of 82.0000 and gained about 0.34% in the holiday shortened week. India’s financial markets were closed on Good Friday. The currency recovered from a brief sell-off to an intraday low at 82.0525 immediately after the RBI held its key repo rate at 6.50%, citing risks to growth amid the recent global financial turmoil. In the overseas markets, the U.S. Dollar Index ended flat after witnessed choppy trading in this Thursday trade as markets participants await the pivotal U.S. jobs data coming out on Friday and its impact on the Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, data showed on Friday the US economy created 236,000 jobs in March, the least since December of 2020, and compared to forecasts of 239,000. The unemployment rate in the United States edged down to 3.5% in March 2023, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%. The Euro gained, while the Yen and the Sterling weakened against the greenback on Thursday. Global financial markets were closed on Good Friday.
BONDS
Indian bond yields plunged on Thursday, pushing the 10-year benchmark yield to a four-month low, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market with a pause on rates. The 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield ended at 7.219% after closing at 7.273% on Wednesday. U.S. bond yields ended marginally higher on Thursday ahead of the jobs numbers on Friday.
(Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities)
(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing.)
(સ્પષ્ટતા: અત્રેથી આપવામાં આવતી તમામ પ્રકારની માહિતી કોઇપણ પ્રકારે રોકાણ, ટ્રેડીંગ માટેની સલાહ નથી. બજારોમાં રોકાણ જોખમોને આધીન છે અને રોકાણ કરતા પહેલા કૃપા કરીને તમારા સલાહકારની સલાહ લો.)
