Views on Commodities, Currencies and Bonds at a Glance
Ahmedabad, 13 April
ENERGY
International and domestic crude oil futures extended gains on Wednesday as easing inflation boosted hopes that the Fed may be nearing its end to the rate hike cycle. The Dollar too remained weak after the data and lent support. Prices initially fell after data showed crude inventories rose by 597,000 barrels in the last week to 470.5 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel drop. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell by 300,000 barrels and 0.6 million barrels respectively. U.S. NYMEX gas futures fell on Wednesday on expectations that milder weather would reduce heating demand and with near-record production for the month pressuring prices.
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 97.4 bcfd this week to 95.3 bcfd next week.FOMC meeting showed that the Fed members projected a mild recession starting later in 2023.
The range for NYMEX WTI May futures is $81.50 to $84.00, while that for MCX April crude futures is 6,700 to 6,885.
According to a Refinitiv poll, U.S. utilities likely put a near-normal 28 billion cubic feet of natural gas in storage last week.
The range for NYMEX April futures is $2.030 to $2.190, while that for MCX April contract is 168 to 181.
BULLION
International and domestic gold and silver gained on Wednesday as signs of cooling inflation bolstered bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may pause its policy tightening after a likely interest rate hike in May.
The U.S. CPI climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February. But in the 12 months through March, the core CPI gained 5.6%, after rising 5.5% on the same basis in February.
The range for COMEX gold June futures is $2,010 to $2,050, while that for COMEX silver May futures is $25.150 to $26.00.
Domestically, the range for MCX gold June is 60,300 to 61,000, while that for MCX silver May is 75,170 to 76,700.
BASE METALS
COMEX and MCX Copper surged higher on Wednesday after the dollar eased as U.S. inflation cooled further raising speculation that the Fed may pause rate hikes.
Also supporting copper were supply concerns as inventories in LME warehouses fell to 56,800 tonnes, their lowest since 2005.
The range for MCX copper April is 774 to 787.
CURRENCIES
The Indian Rupee ended marginally stronger but ended in small range against the dollar on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of an inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
The Rupee settled at 82.0775 per dollar compared with 82.1250 in the previous session after trading in a narrow 10 paisa range the whole session.
In the overseas markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell on Wednesday after the U.S. CPI climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February leading to speculation that Fed may reached its end of the rate hike cycle. So, the Rupee could open at around 81.9200 to 81.9500 compared with 82.0775 in the previous session.
Supports for the USDINR spot pair are at 81.7850 and 81.6600, resistances are at 82.1175 and 82.1575.
BONDS
Indian bond yields ended marginally lower on Wednesday, ahead of inflation numbers from both India and U.S. The 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield ended at 7.213%, after closing at 7.222% on Tuesday. Looking ahead, Indian bond yields could start lower this early Thursday morning as easing domestic inflation could suggest that the RBI may continue to maintain status quo.
The benchmark 10-year yield could move in a range of 7.190% to 7.235%.
(Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities)
(Disclaimer: The information provided here is investment advice only. Investing in the markets is subject to risks and please consult your advisor before investing.)
(સ્પષ્ટતા: અત્રેથી આપવામાં આવતી તમામ પ્રકારની માહિતી કોઇપણ પ્રકારે રોકાણ, ટ્રેડીંગ માટેની સલાહ નથી. બજારોમાં રોકાણ જોખમોને આધીન છે અને રોકાણ કરતા પહેલા કૃપા કરીને તમારા સલાહકારની સલાહ લો.)
