AHMEDABAD, 13 MARCH:  Silver rose to around $85/oz after sliding for two straight sessions, but remained on track to end the week largely unchanged as the dollar strengthened amid Middle East uncertainties and surging oil prices. Defiant rhetoric from leaders in Tehran and Washington indicated that the Iran war remains far from de-escalation after nearly two weeks of fighting. Oil prices also jumped after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed while Tehran intensified attacks on regional oil and transport facilities. Rising inflation risks prompted markets to push back expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from July to September. Investors now await January’s PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for updated insights on price trends, though it will not reflect the impact of the Iran war. MCX Silver May futures may appreciate to Rs 272,000/kg as the undertone is mildly positive in the world markets.

Crude oil holds gains on Iran rhetoric:

WTI crude futures traded around $95/bbl after a sharp two-day rally, as Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. He also warned that Iran may open additional fronts in the conflict if the US and Israel continue their attacks, while US President Donald Trump said preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and posing a threat to the Middle East is more important to him than the cost of oil. Tankers have been unable to load cargo from the Gulf since the conflict began earlier this month, effectively removing 20% of global trade and forcing GCC members to cut production by 10 million barrels per day as storage capacity filled up. The IEA said the disruption was the largest in oil market history, prompting its members to agree on a 400 million barrel release from strategic stockpiles. – By Mr. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Indusind Securities